Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Looking at the Black Vote in the South

Why is it that the larger and more Democratic the black population of a state the more likely the whites were to vote for Bush in 2000 and 2004 and what does that mean for Obama? Part of it is the Bush/War issue; part of it is institutionalized racism; and part of it is economic.
However, this is not the first time allusions have been made to the fact that the Black vote will not be all that influential--because they already vote high in numbers in the Presidential election. I disagree with that assumption.
African-americans may vote in relatively high numbers already--However, according to the US Census about 64% of AA's are registered; while about 56% voted in 11/2004. That means if just 3-5% of those registered will now vote; and 3-5% of those that were not registered get registered and then vote--we could see an increase in the African-American vote by 8-10% (on the conservative side) which I am sure will happen if Obama is at the top of the ticket. If there is that much incentive for blacks to get the vote out in much higher percentages in random elections--how much more of an incentive will there be to elect the first African-American president.
Will it be enough to carry the day--not sure--depends on how monolithic they vote--but I don't think you can just write off the black vote because they already vote anyway. I think that is a "misunderestimation" (thanks W!) :)
Obama's coattails will likely be long enough to help carry Dems where there is a) a significant African-american population and b) Reps and Dems are within 10% of each other.

Feel free to disagree with me, and Obama--that doesn't make you a racist by any means--but the argument being made about Obama being "cocky or show-offy or elitist" does border that ground of thinking certain people should "stay in their place".
Obama has been more open and honest and humble than many politicians. And, finally, if we really want to talk about arrogance and cockiness look at the current resident of 1600 PA Ave and his "dark lord" their arrogance and contempt for the American people has grown over the past 8 years so much that even with record low approval ratings they are still clinging to some fictional mandate.

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